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Blue Shirt Initiative 35 4.2 Trust in EAOs/EROs The struggle of ethnic minorities for self‑determination has long been absent from Myanmar’s mainstream political discussion. However, the changing political landscape following the coup has led the general public—especially the Bamar majority—to embrace this cause and acknowledge the leadership role ethnic groups will play in Myanmar’s future. However, since the focus was only on the military organizations, the Blue Shirt team asked respondents how much they trust two key Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) that have shifted the balance of power in the armed resistance since the coup. Overall, half of the respondents expressed trust in EAOs, while fewer than one quarter indicated distrust. There was no significant difference in trust levels between these two groups. No confidence at all Not very much confidence A great deal of confidence DK/RA Quite a lot of confidence 3BHA (AA, MNDAA, TNLA) and UWSA 6% 15% 43% 11% 25% K3C (CNF, KIO, KNPP, KNU) 6% 16% 43% 9% 27% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fig-41 : Trust in EAOs/EROs (Overall) n=2808 4.3 Trust in SAC and its Institutions The 2021 coup left all state institutions dysfunctional and eroded their trustworthiness. For the past four years, the State Administration Council has struggled to restore its legitimacy and regain public confidence at home and abroad. The Blue Shirt team asked respondents for their views to gauge current levels of trust in the SAC and its institutions. Overall, about eight out of ten respondents expressed distrust toward the SAC and all public institutions associated with it. The SAC, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, and the Myanmar military were viewed as the most untrustworthy.

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Four Years of Resistance: PublicPerceptions of thePresent and Future of Myanmar

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Burmese
English

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Military Coup

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Blue Shirt Initiative (BSI)

Date Published: Jul 4, 2025

Abstract: Over the past four years, the social, political, and economic lives of the people in Myanmar have undergone significant changes. These developments are interpreted differently by various political actors—some view them as temporary disruptions that could soon give way to a more promising future, while others fear that the country is on the brink of becoming a failed state. But how do ordinary people perceive these conflicts? What are their expectations? Given the tremendous amount of noise in the information ecosystem these days, it is almost impossible to detect the true voices of the people. The Blue Shirt team decided to speak directly with the public to bring out their voices and break through the echo chamber of social media. From March 21 to 25, 2025, the Blue Shirt team interviewed 3,128 people from 237 townships across the country. During the survey, respondents were asked about their perceptions and expectations regarding the current situation in Myanmar—specifically, how they feel about the Spring Revolution at present, whether they are optimistic or pessimistic, hopeful or depressed, and about their daily struggles. As discussions around the formation of new states or federal units—and even secession—become more frequent among key stakeholders, we asked the public how they feel about these issues. In addition, we asked their views on what they believe would be realistic and pragmatic solutions to end the ongoing conflicts. Since the Myanmar military staged a coup in 2021, it has been impossible to use probability sampling methods—particularly for civic groups. Instead, purposive sampling was employed, and the fieldwork was completed on March 25, 2025, three days before a 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar. Two important caveats are worth noting: First, because probability sampling was not used, the findings may not fully represent the entire population of Myanmar.To ensure the security and safety of both enumerators and respondents, only individuals associated with the Blue Shirt were included. As a result, approximately 80 percent of respondents reported being interested in politics. However, they do offer valuable insights into prevailing societal trends. Second, as the fieldwork concluded before the earthquake, we cannot determine whether public perceptions have remained the same or were affected by the disaster.

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Four Years of Resistance: PublicPerceptions of thePresent and Future of Myanmar

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