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12/16/25, 10:44 AM Beyond Ballots: The Junta Chief’s Elite Management Strategy Ahead of Myanmar’s Elections | ISP-Myanmar Staff (the third-highest position in command) with rank of general, Chief of Staff (Army), Quartermaster General, Chiefs of the Bureau of Special Operations with ranks of lieutenant general, and regional commanders with ranks of major general. For instance, when the junta chief assumed the role of Commander-in-Chief in 2011, Kyaw Swar Lin was a lieutenant colonel. In just 14 years, he has risen to become one of the most powerful figures in the military, now serving as Joint Chief of Staff (Army, Navy, and Air Force). Although General Kyaw Swar Lin lacks notable combat experience, his steady rise through key administrative positions within the Commander-in-Chief’s Office has made him deeply indebted to the junta chief for his rapid advancement and rewards. Through such promotions, the junta chief balances generational renewal with the consolidation of loyalty, ensuring his continued dominance over the armed forces. Pre-Election Maneuvers The strategy extends beyond the barracks. The junta chief is also working to tighten his grip on the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), a long-time ally of the military, by placing loyal officers in key leadership positions. Just two years after the coup, he appointed two trusted retired officers (https://eastasiaforum.org/2024/12/14/myanmars-min-aunghlaing-struggles-for-political-longevity/), Lieutenant General Myo Zaw Thein and Lieutenant General Aung Soe, to top roles within the party. Now, many senior generals, lieutenant generals, and major generals who were recently retired are contesting in various constituencies under the USDP banner in the upcoming elections. There has been clear tension (https://www.bbc.com/burmese/articles/ce860z46yv5o) even before loyal officers were deployed into the party ahead of the general elections. Within the USDP leadership, occasional disagreements have emerged between Party Chair Khin Yi and Vice Chair Myo Zaw Thein, a former adjutant general and one of Min Aung Hlaing’s closest clients. Reports (https://www.bbc.com/burmese/articles/ce860z46yv5o) suggest that Khin Yi has sometimes held meetings without informing Myo Zaw Thein, reflecting mistrust and internal friction. The current USDP leadership (https://usdp.org.mm/) largely consists of figures from the same generation as the junta chief, making it difficult for him to exert full control without relying on military pressure. The party is chaired and led by former Brigadier General Khin Yi (DSA Batch 17), former General Myat Hein (DSA-17), former Major General Hla Tun (DSA-15), and former Lieutenant General Thaung Aye (DSA-20), while the junta chief himself belongs to DSA Batch 19. If the junta chief manages to replace this older generation with his own trusted members from the winning coalition, he could extend his influence over the USDP and transform it into a more loyal political instrument. However, this transition is https://ispmyanmar.com/beyond-ballots-the-junta-chiefs-elite-management-strategy-ahead-of-myanmars-elections/ 6/9

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Beyond Ballots: The Junta Chief’s Elite Management Strategy Ahead of Myanmar’s Elections

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2025 elections
Sham Election

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Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar ( ISP Myanmar )

Date Published: Dec 12, 2025

Abstract: As Myanmar’s junta-led elections approach in December, the junta leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, is consolidating his power and strategically managing the military elites to preserve his control. Historical precedents of elite management by Myanmar’s junta leaders demonstrate how these power plays can determine regime survival or collapse. Analyzing the junta’s internal shifts today provides insights into the regime’s stability and into how Min Aung Hlaing uses the elections to reinforce his dominance.

While much of the current debate around Myanmar’s upcoming elections focuses on rigging, legitimacy, and the resistance’s response, a critical aspect is often overlooked: the junta chief’s sophisticated strategy for managing internal power within the military.

In the lead-up to the polls, the junta chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, has been deploying calculated elite management tactics to mitigate grievances among senior officers and preempt potential power struggles within the military. The interplay between leaders and their circle of inner elites is one of the foundations of regime stability in a dictatorship. How those at the top manage the composition, responsibilities, and hierarchy of elites often determines whether the regime will survive or collapse. The junta chief appears to be aware of this dynamic. Instead of relying solely on repression or coercion, he has pursued a more calculated approach, one rooted in elite management. Elite management does not exclude repression or coercion. It is not only about persuasion and incentives; it may also involve various methods such as coercion, divide and rule, persuasion, and more to manage elite politics.

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Beyond Ballots: The Junta Chief’s Elite Management Strategy Ahead of Myanmar’s Elections

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