outlets have been banned. The recent Cyber Security Law further tightens this control by stripping privacy safeguards, effectively punishing people for accessing independent news on social media. The military is also violating the rights to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly (ICCPR Article 21). These rights are deemed “essential conditions for the effective exercise of the right to vote.” The primary instrument for this violation is the new Law No. 48/2025. The military is weaponising this law’s vaguely defined prohibition against “disrupting” the electoral process to crush any form of dissent. The law is already being used to arrest and prosecute individuals for a wide range of protected activities, including organising election boycotts, publishing critical analysis, or holding peaceful protests. This legal terror is being complemented by the military’s ongoing campaign of arbitrary arrests, torture, and extrajudicial killings. The military continues to target activists, journalists, and anyone suspected of opposition, using its vast surveillance apparatus to monitor and hunt down dissenters. These actions are creating a climate of pervasive fear and annihilating the fundamental freedoms that are the essential preconditions for any legitimate election. During the election: Violations of the right to vote During the election period itself, the military is likely to shift from eliminating opposition to manufacturing the appearance of public consent through the violation of voting rights. There will likely be a widespread violation of the right to universal and equal suffrage (ICCPR Article 25). The election will almost certainly not be held in vast swathes of the country that are active conflict zones, immediately excluding millions of people from the process. Millions of internally displaced persons, who have fled the military’s violence, are likely to face insurmountable barriers to voting, contrary to the state's obligation to ensure all persons entitled to vote can exercise that right. The military is also likely to violate the right to a free and secret vote (ICCPR Article 25, UDHR Article 21). Drawing from its 2010 behaviour, the military is expected to engage in widespread voter intimidation and coercion. In areas under its control, security forces and pro-military militias will likely be deployed to pressure people into voting. It is also probable that inducements and the manipulation of humanitarian aid will be used to compel participation from vulnerable populations. This will likely be combined with electoral fraud. The recent amendments to the electoral laws introduce a complex mix of voting systems and new technologies like electronic voting machines, which can be easily manipulated by a military-appointed and biased election commission that lacks the independence required by international standards. These actions fundamentally violate the principle that an election must guarantee the “free expression of the will of the electors.” Specific violations in ethnic minority areas The military's tactics are likely to be particularly severe and distinct in ethnic minority areas, where it has lost significant territorial control and historically committed its worst atrocities.