6 | ELECTION PHASES WILL FURTHER RAMP UP CONFLICT Mapping conflict in Myanmar is a difficult task. Control is often fleeting as armed groups regroup and relocate. Nonetheless, resistance forces appear to have reached a peak in early 2025, with 144 townships partly or wholly under the effective control of the People’s Defense Force (PDF) or anti-junta ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), 107 townships under SAC control, and 79 townships contested, according to the NUG’s Ministry of Defense. Since then, however, the Tatmadaw was able to push back in some key areas. On 21 April, it regained control of Lashio, after the MNDAA agreed to withdraw under pressure from China. On 17 July, it reclaimed Nawngkhio from the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), followed on 23 July by the town of Thabeikkyin in Mandalay region, previously controlled by the PDF. The military has also made gains in Kayah and Southern Shan states, retaking the towns of Moebye on 6 July and Demoso on 19 August, and is on the offensive in several regions. Min Aung Hlaing first announced that the junta’s elections would be held in phases in an interview with Russian state media in March 2024. Myanmar’s legal framework allows this, and there is a historical precedent as elections were held over a period of ten months in 1951-1952. The first phase of the elections staged by the junta will take place in 102 townships on 28 December 2025. 72 of these townships are experiencing armed conflict, according to the Myanmar Peace Monitor project. Some towns included in this first phase, like Lashio and Nawngkhio, were recently reclaimed by the junta. Two more phases are expected to take place in January, although details have yet to be released. 28