order, under section Provisional measure (2) – do not commit genocidal acts - Deliberately inflicting conditions of life calculated to bring about the group’s physical destruction in whole or in part. Armed conflict situation In 2025, in addition to its operations in Rakhine and Chin States, the Arakan Army has extended its military operations into the neighbouring regions of Ayeyarwaddy, Bago, and Magway.55 Intense fighting between the AA and allied Peoples’ Defence Forces and the Myanmar military has reportedly displaced tens of thousands of civilians.56 In addition to trying to open up trade routes from central Myanmar to Rakhine State, analysts speculate that the AA is seeking to position itself as a ‘kingmaker’57 to leverage maximum influence over Myanmar’s political future, which includes the long-term fate of the Rohingya. The Arakan Army has also launched sporadic attacks on junta positions in Sittwe from a distance, keeping the city under siege.58 Junta forces have blocked all exit routes from Sittwe, leaving Rakhine and Rohingya civilians who are trapped in the area extremely vulnerable.59 Fierce clashes have also been reported in Kyaukphyu, where the regime has its largest naval base in Rakhine State. Kyaukphyu has several Chinese-backed mega projects, including oil and gas pipelines, a deep seaport and a special economic zone. The junta has responded with airstrikes, targeting Rakhine villages and forcing residents to flee.60 In the northern Rakhine State townships of Buthidaung and Maungdaw, ARSA continues to operate, even after the arrest of its leader Ata Ullah. As BROUK has detailed in previous reports, the Myanmar military has collaborated with ARSA, as well as the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO) and the Arakan Rohingya Army (ARA). The junta has been accused of providing material support to such groups.61 The involvement of these groups in forced recruitment of Rohingya in Rakhine State and from the refugee camps in Bangladesh for the Myanmar military has been well-documented by BROUK and others, but appears to have stopped in recent months. The regime’s divide-and-rule tactics have had a devastating impact on Rohingya communities. The junta’s ongoing genocidal intent towards the Rohingya can be inferred from these tactics, particularly when viewed through the lens of the provisional measures order. Instead of protecting the Rohingya – as it is legally bound to do - the regime has forcibly recruited thousands of Rohingya men, 55 The Irrawaddy, ‘AA Reports Rapid Ayeyarwady Region Advances as Myanmar Junta Retreats’ (21 January 2025) available at <https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/war-against-the-junta/aa-reports-rapid-ayeyarwady-region-advances-asmyanmar-junta-retreats.html> and RFA, ‘Arakan Army captures junta camp on road to central Myanmar’ (28 January 2025) available at <https://www.rfa.org/english/myanmar/2025/01/28/aa-rakine-state-bago/> accessed 17 May 2025. 56 See for example, The Irrawaddy, ‘Arakan Army Steps Up Ayeyarwady Attacks’ (21 March 2025) available at <https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/war-against-the-junta/arakan-army-steps-up-ayeyarwady-attacks.html> and Myanmar Now, ‘Junta forces retreat as escalating clashes with Arakan Army continue across Ayeyarwady Region’ (1 May 2025) available at <https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/junta-forces-retreat-as-escalating-clashes-with-arakan-army-continueacross-ayeyarwady-region/> accessed 17 May 2025. 57 See for example, Asia Times, ‘Arakan Army holds the key to breaking Myanmar’s junta’ (26 March 2025) available at <https://asiatimes.com/2025/03/arakan-army-holds-the-key-to-breaking-myanmars-junta/#> accessed 17 May 2025. 58 Myanmar Now, ‘The Arakan Army launches new offensive, closing in on Sittwe’ (20 February 2025) available at <https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/the-arakan-army-launches-new-offensive-closing-in-on-sittwe/> accessed 17 May 2025. 59 RFA, ‘Arakan Army closing in on capital of Myanmar’s Rakhine state’ (18 February 2025) available at <https://www.rfa.org/english/myanmar/2025/02/18/myanmar-sittwe-rakhine-fighting-arakan-army/> accessed 17 May 2025. 60 Myanmar Now, ‘AA, Myanmar junta engage in fierce fighting near Rakhine State’s largest naval base’ (24 February 2025) available at <https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/aa-myanmar-junta-engage-in-fierce-fighting-near-rakhine-stateslargest-naval-base/> and The Irrawaddy, ‘Arakan Army Renews Attacks on Kyaukphyu Naval Base’ (1 March 2025) available at <https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/war-against-the-junta/arakan-army-renews-attacks-on-kyaukphyu-navalbase.html> accessed 17 May 2025. 61 IISS, ‘Competing armed groups pose new threat to Rohingya in Bangladesh’ (13 December 2023) available at <https://myanmar.iiss.org/analysis/rohingya> and TNI, ‘A New Dimension to Armed Conflicts in Arakan?’ (20 September 2023) available at <https://www.tni.org/en/article/a-new-dimension-to-armed-conflicts-in-arakan> accessed 21 May 2025. 11