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Blue Shirt Initiative 29 3.2 Preferences for Ending Political Conflicts Four years have passed since Myanmar began grappling with post-coup political turmoil and widespread armed conflict across the country. The Blue Shirt team asked respondents to assess the effectiveness of different approaches used by various actors to end the conflict. Half of the respondents viewed military action as the most effective method, compared to 41 percent who favored political dialogue and 35 percent who supported international mediation. Slightly effective Not effective at all Military means 12% Political Dialogue 15% International mediation 14% Somewhat effective 15% 12% 38% 22% 33% 29% 0% 20% Very effective 24% 21% 8% 4% 31% 40% DK/RA 60% 22% 80% 100% Fig-33 : Three different approaches in ending conflicts (overall) n=2808 2024-2025 National Survey Slightly effective Not effective at all 2024 8% Somewhat effective 36% 8% Very effective 20% DK/RA 28% Military means International mediation 2025 12% 2024 15% 2025 14% 2024 17% 19% 2025 15% 22% 15% 38% 23% 28% 29% 12% 24% 9% 25% 4% 31% 26% 22% 13% 26% Political Dialogue 0% 20% 33% 40% 21% 8% 60% 80% 100% Fig-34 : Three different approaches in ending conflicts (2024-2025 comparison)

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Four Years of Resistance: PublicPerceptions of thePresent and Future of Myanmar

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Burmese
English

Topic

Military Coup

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Blue Shirt Initiative (BSI)

Date Published: Jul 4, 2025

Abstract: Over the past four years, the social, political, and economic lives of the people in Myanmar have undergone significant changes. These developments are interpreted differently by various political actors—some view them as temporary disruptions that could soon give way to a more promising future, while others fear that the country is on the brink of becoming a failed state. But how do ordinary people perceive these conflicts? What are their expectations? Given the tremendous amount of noise in the information ecosystem these days, it is almost impossible to detect the true voices of the people. The Blue Shirt team decided to speak directly with the public to bring out their voices and break through the echo chamber of social media. From March 21 to 25, 2025, the Blue Shirt team interviewed 3,128 people from 237 townships across the country. During the survey, respondents were asked about their perceptions and expectations regarding the current situation in Myanmar—specifically, how they feel about the Spring Revolution at present, whether they are optimistic or pessimistic, hopeful or depressed, and about their daily struggles. As discussions around the formation of new states or federal units—and even secession—become more frequent among key stakeholders, we asked the public how they feel about these issues. In addition, we asked their views on what they believe would be realistic and pragmatic solutions to end the ongoing conflicts. Since the Myanmar military staged a coup in 2021, it has been impossible to use probability sampling methods—particularly for civic groups. Instead, purposive sampling was employed, and the fieldwork was completed on March 25, 2025, three days before a 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar. Two important caveats are worth noting: First, because probability sampling was not used, the findings may not fully represent the entire population of Myanmar.To ensure the security and safety of both enumerators and respondents, only individuals associated with the Blue Shirt were included. As a result, approximately 80 percent of respondents reported being interested in politics. However, they do offer valuable insights into prevailing societal trends. Second, as the fieldwork concluded before the earthquake, we cannot determine whether public perceptions have remained the same or were affected by the disaster.

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BSI_National_Survey_Jun_2025_EN.pdf
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BSI_National_Survey_Jun_2025_MM.pdf
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Myanmar Internet Project

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Four Years of Resistance: PublicPerceptions of thePresent and Future of Myanmar

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