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Public Perceptions of the Present and Future of Myanmar 42 Methodology Data Collection : March 21 to 25, 2025 A total of 3,128 respondents, who are 18 years and above aged citizens were selected from 237 townships across the country by using a non-probability sampling method. Primary Sampling Units (Townships) : Since a probability sampling method could not be employed, we aimed to cover 330 townships across the country. However, after assessing the intensity of armed conflicts, safety conditions, accessibility, and telecommunication infrastructure, only 237 townships were deemed feasible for conducting the survey. We then allocated an equal number of respondents to each selected township. The number of respondents from each state and region was proportional to the population projections from the 2014 and 2024 censuses. [Note: To avoid confusion and for the purpose of statistical analysis, we use the boundaries of states, regions, and townships as they existed before the 2021 coup.] Recruiting Respondents: A purposive sampling method was used to recruit respondents from each selected township. To ensure the representativeness of our findings, we aimed to recruit 12 respondents per township. Local researchers were responsible for recruiting respondents, ensuring a 50:50 gender balance (50 percent female and 50 percent male), all aged 18 and above, and capturing a diversity of views. To enable comparisons between respondents from Yangon City and the Sagaing–Magway regions—where armed conflicts were relatively new and intense—and those from other parts of the country, we drew oversamples from these specific areas. As a result, six additional respondents were included from townships within Yangon City and the Sagaing–Magway regions. National Sample Yangon City Oversample Magway-Sagaing Oversample Total interviews National 2,808 2,808 States 748 748 Regions 2,060 2,060 Yangon City 396 Magway-Sagaing 541 198 594 122 Overall 663 3,128 Data Collection : Between March 21 and 25, a total of 3,128 interviews were conducted using customized software developed by the Blue Shirt team. Depending on the security environment and communication infrastructure, 58 percent of the interviews were conducted via weblinks, 40 percent were conducted face-to-face, and 2 percent were conducted by telephone. Overall States Regions Via the Survey Link 1,815 342 1,473 Face-to-Face interviews 1,242 394 848 71 12 59 Via Telephone Spot Check : Immediately after the data collection was completed, 60 respondents were randomly selected for a verification process. They were re-contacted and asked a set of questions to confirm that the original interviews had taken place and that the responses were genuine. This spot-check procedure was implemented as a quality control measure to detect and prevent any potential data fabrication or interviewer bias.

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Four Years of Resistance: PublicPerceptions of thePresent and Future of Myanmar

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Burmese
English

Topic

Military Coup

Author(s)

Blue Shirt Initiative (BSI)

Date Published: Jul 4, 2025

Abstract: Over the past four years, the social, political, and economic lives of the people in Myanmar have undergone significant changes. These developments are interpreted differently by various political actors—some view them as temporary disruptions that could soon give way to a more promising future, while others fear that the country is on the brink of becoming a failed state. But how do ordinary people perceive these conflicts? What are their expectations? Given the tremendous amount of noise in the information ecosystem these days, it is almost impossible to detect the true voices of the people. The Blue Shirt team decided to speak directly with the public to bring out their voices and break through the echo chamber of social media. From March 21 to 25, 2025, the Blue Shirt team interviewed 3,128 people from 237 townships across the country. During the survey, respondents were asked about their perceptions and expectations regarding the current situation in Myanmar—specifically, how they feel about the Spring Revolution at present, whether they are optimistic or pessimistic, hopeful or depressed, and about their daily struggles. As discussions around the formation of new states or federal units—and even secession—become more frequent among key stakeholders, we asked the public how they feel about these issues. In addition, we asked their views on what they believe would be realistic and pragmatic solutions to end the ongoing conflicts. Since the Myanmar military staged a coup in 2021, it has been impossible to use probability sampling methods—particularly for civic groups. Instead, purposive sampling was employed, and the fieldwork was completed on March 25, 2025, three days before a 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar. Two important caveats are worth noting: First, because probability sampling was not used, the findings may not fully represent the entire population of Myanmar.To ensure the security and safety of both enumerators and respondents, only individuals associated with the Blue Shirt were included. As a result, approximately 80 percent of respondents reported being interested in politics. However, they do offer valuable insights into prevailing societal trends. Second, as the fieldwork concluded before the earthquake, we cannot determine whether public perceptions have remained the same or were affected by the disaster.

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BSI_National_Survey_Jun_2025_EN.pdf
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Myanmar Internet Project

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Four Years of Resistance: PublicPerceptions of thePresent and Future of Myanmar

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