media and conflict in myanmar: opportunities for media to advance peace Introduction Myanmar’s transition has been remarkable in pace and scope. Government and civil society actors have taken extraordinary steps to foster democratic change, institutional reform, economic growth, and peaceful transition. The process, however, is far from complete. The 2008 constitution reserves 25 percent of seats in parliament for the military and blocks those with a foreign national in their immediate family from running for president (a clear attempt to bar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from office). Following the 2010 elections, considered flawed by many in the international community, a new government was sworn in. Although technically civilian, it includes many senior military officers who resigned their military posts to take up public office. In addition, the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) holds more than half of the seats in parliament. Perhaps not surprisingly, as a result of these quotas and dynamics, the reform process was viewed with skepticism when it began to emerge in 2010. Advances in the reform process since 2010, however, have led many to temper their skepticism. Various barometers attest to the astonishing pace and scope of Myanmar’s transition. Laws that denied freedoms of speech, association, and movement have been repealed en masse. The vast majority of political prisoners have been released and political exiles welcomed home, swelling the ranks of an already vibrant civil society. As of August 2013, fourteen cease-fire agreements have been signed with armed groups representing non-Bamar nationalities since the government launched its peace initiative in 2011. An agreement to halt hostilities in the last active civil war between the government and the Kachin Independence Organization and Army was achieved in late 2013. This agreement raises the possibility that a nationwide ceasefire might soon be in place for the first time since independence. The international community has responded to the country’s efforts by lifting sanctions, reestablishing diplomatic ties, welcoming the country’s leaders to their capitals, wiping out most of the country’s debt and pledging billions in aid, and gearing up for large-scale private investment. Flanked by 40 percent of the world’s population and two rising powers in China and India, Myanmar’s political, social, and economic transformation is no longer a boutique issue in international politics. Hosting the 2013 South East Asian games, implementing its 2014 census, and chairing the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 2014 provide politically important milestones for Myanmar’s leaders. The eyes of the world will be watching. These will be important benchmarks on the path to the 2015 elections, which will be a critical point in determining how genuine and comprehensive the reform process is. If 2015 is the goalpost, then constitutional change, free and fair elections, and some form of political guarantee for armed groups for a post-2015 political process are the goals. This ideal scenario is possible but far from guaranteed. Although the transition has been rapid, it has not been smooth on all fronts. The international community has largely applauded Myanmar’s progress, but several ugly episodes of communal violence and the continued military offensive in Kachin State have tarnished the country’s improving image. Business commentators have talked up the potential of Myanmar as the last frontier or the next Asian tiger, but increasing investment flows have been accompanied by reports of land grabbing, corrupt business practices, and public protest. Myanmar’s leaders have stayed the course, but the inevitable frictions among leaders vying for top positions in the run-up to 2015 are emerging. International partners have had difficulty calibrating engagement. As one interviewee noted, “The international community went from complete sanctions to full engagement, both of which are too extreme. You can engage and be critical at the same time. There needs to be accountability for the negative and positive changes.” USIP.ORG  5 The international community has largely applauded Myanmar’s progress, but several ugly episodes of communal violence and the continued military offensive in Kachin State have tarnished the country’s improving image.