Mirroring 2010, this shift facilitates informal transnational repression where neighbours hand over dissidents without due process. The Myanmar government will demand the return of individuals, treating them not as refugees fleeing a coup but as criminals fleeing a democracy threatening the right to asylum and violating non-refoulement principles. 9. Entrenchment of nationalist supremacy As violent control dissipates, it will be replaced by administrative systems prioritising Bamar Buddhist male interests once again, while undermining women and minorities. Shifting to social engineering, the proxy government will strengthen the Bamar Buddhist man as the central figure of national identity. Revitalising Thein Sein-era approach seen in the Race and Religion Protection Laws and using the Constitution to exclude women from high office, the regime will upgrade its newly digitally-powered citizenship scrutiny to marginalise non-Bamar groups, stripping them of legal status without physical force. 10. Platform fatigue and algorithmic surrender Major technology platforms are expected to reduce their crisis response resources as the conflict drags on and the regime presents a civilian face to the world. Companies like Meta and Google may treat the new administration as a legitimate government, which could lead to a rollback of the special policies put in place after the 2017 Rohingya genocide and the 2021 coup. This platform fatigue, combined with the removal of ban designations for military entities now rebranded as civilian ministries, will likely reopen the digital space to coordinated attacks, doxxing, and propaganda unchecked by algorithmic safeguards, threatening the right to safety and non-discrimination. Recommendations The international community must move beyond condemnation and take specific action to counter these trends. • For ASEAN and UN Member States: Refuse to recognise the 2025 elections or the resulting government as legitimate. Do not use the transition to a nominal civilian administration to normalise relations or ease sanctions. Diplomatic engagement must be conditional on verifiable progressive policy changes rather than procedural milestones. • For arms-supplying States: Do not use non-credible elections to justify resuming or expanding military transfers. The installation of a proxy government does not alter regime illegitimacy or absolve suppliers of complicity. Halt transfers of lethal aid surveillance infrastructure and advanced weaponry enabling automated targeting of civilians.