Prediction 1 for 2026. From martial law to “lawfare” The inauguration of a proxy civilian government will mark a shift from emergency decrees to “lawfare”, where the judicial system is used more systematically against opponents. Mirroring the 1974 reforms, the government will move away from more obvious violence to primarily enforcing laws like the Counter Terrorism Law (2014) and Penal Code (1861) through highly dependent courts. This strategy projects due process and a sort of normalcy while criminalising dissent. It will replace arbitrary detention with politicised criminal convictions that carry the weight of legal finality, undermining rights to fair trial and liberty. It will also give proxy civilian leaders the excuse that they do not want to “interfere with judicial independence”. 2. The Thai model of repression Seeking international legitimacy, the proxy government will likely shift from mass incarceration to strategic targeting and disproportionate sentencing. Tactics will mirror Thailand, where specific targets receive massively disproportionate sentences instead of filling prisons with thousands of protesters. Courts will hand out decades-long sentences for minor offences like social media posts, creating a chilling effect that limits dissent without the logistical cost of mass detention. Furthermore, while detaining thousands shows an illegitimate government, imprisoning a few “only” shows an authoritarian government. 3. Automated warfare and sustained conflict The post-election landscape will not see de-escalation but an intensification of automated warfare fuelled by renewed foreign support. Resembling the 2010 resumption of Kachin fighting, the 2026 election will embolden military campaigns rather than seek compromise. A disputed election victory allows the military to normalise relations with China, facilitating transfers of more weapons, advanced drones, and loitering munitions. This technological escalation threatens the right to life by increasing the likelihood of indiscriminate attacks and removing humans from the killing process. 4. Technical enclosure of the digital space To maintain economic legitimacy, the incoming proxy government will replace crude internet shutdowns with advanced surgical censorship. Unlike blunt shutdowns, the government will utilise the Cybersecurity Law (2025) and new Deep Packet Inspection technology to block encrypted traffic and VPNs while keeping other digital tech operational. People’s attempts to access blocked mass platforms like Facebook will reduce as the public splinters into different spaces. This mimics the Chinese model, where access to independent