Myanmar’s human rights challenges for 2026 10 December 2025 International Human Rights Day offers an opportunity to examine fundamental rights in Myanmar and reflect on what may happen next year, in 2026. But before looking to 2026, Human Rights Myanmar’s previous predictions for 2025 are reviewed against reality. Past predictions vs. reality Prediction 1 (Correct): Transitional challenges for NUG and ethnic groups: As resistance groups consolidated control in areas like Northern Shan and Sagaing, reports emerged of fragmented legal systems and occasional power abuses. While the NUG attempted to enforce codes of conduct, governance remained inconsistent and often male-dominated at the local level. Prediction 2 (Correct): Escalating military atrocity crimes: The military continued relentless airstrikes, particularly in Rakhine and Sagaing. Collective punishment tactics, including village burnings, intensified throughout 2025 as the military launched clearance operations to secure areas for the December elections. Prediction 3 (Correct): Deterioration of civic space: The military activated the Cybersecurity Law (2025) and deployed Chinese surveillance tech to monitor communications. Myanmar solidified its status as a global hub for opium production and cyber scams, generating illicit revenue to offset sanctions. Prediction 4 (Delayed): Impact of ICC actions: While the ICC judges had not issued a warrant by late 2025, an Argentinian court issued a historic arrest warrant in February. However, this legal pressure did not deter China from deepening engagement with the military ahead of the elections. Prediction 5 (Mixed): Exiled civil society under pressure: Thailand unexpectedly granted legal work rights to long-term refugees, easing some deportation fears. However, the prediction on funding was accurate as severe cuts by major donors like USAID and Sweden forced many CSOs and media outlets to downsize. Some of these 2025 predictions will continue in 2026. The military’s so-called “election”, due to start on 31 December 2025 and continue through the middle of January 2026, will also lead to further developments. The following analysis forecasts human rights implications for 2026 if the military installs a proxy civilian government similar to the transitions of 1974 and 2010.