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Bangladesh/Myanmar: The Dangers of a Rohingya Insurgency Crisis Group Asia Report N°348, 18 June 2025 Page 26 Appendix A: Map of Arakan Army Control in Myanmar’s Rakhine and Southern Chin States Since late 2023, the Arakan Army has gradually wrested almost full control over Rakhine State from the Myanmar military, including the northern Rakhine region from where close to 750,000 Rohingya refugees fled in 2016-2017. Source: Crisis Group research. June 2025, CRI S I S G ROUP

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Bangladesh/Myanmar: The Dangers of a Rohingya Insurgency

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Burmese
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Topic

Military Coup
Rohingya Crisis

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International Crisis Group (ICG)

Date Published: Jun 18, 2025

Abstract: The Arakan Army’s defeat of the Myanmar military in northern Rakhine State has shifted Rohingya armed groups onto the front foot. After years of bloody infighting in Bangladesh’s refugee camps, these groups, which claim to represent the Rohingya Muslim minority in Rakhine, agreed in November 2024 to work together to fight the Arakan Army, which draws support mainly from the state’s Buddhist majority. Since then, violence has fallen sharply in the refugee camps, while the groups have expanded recruitment. At the same time, the Bangladeshi government has started engaging tentatively with the Arakan Army, which controls all of Myanmar’s border with the country. Mounting attacks by Rohingya armed groups in Rakhine are not only likely to undermine these talks, but could also heighten anti-Rohingya sentiment in Myanmar, damaging prospects for the repatriation of up to one million refugees. Bangladesh should curb the influence of Rohingya armed groups in the camps and step up dialogue with the Arakan Army, which for its part should take concrete steps to show it can govern in the interests of all communities.

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Bangladesh/Myanmar: The Dangers of a Rohingya Insurgency

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