Bangladesh/Myanmar: The Dangers of a Rohingya Insurgency Crisis Group Asia Report N°348, 18 June 2025 Page 19 In far northern Maungdaw, where locals have reported that Rohingya forces are training in camps close to the frontier, the Arakan Army has begun forming village defence militias among ethnic Rakhine in anticipation of attacks.104 The group has also told some nearby Rohingya communities they may have to relocate, likely due to concerns that ARSA will base itself in their villages.105 Fresh ARSA attacks in late March and April prompted further clearance operations as well as alleged mistreatment of Rohingya civilians by Arakan Army forces.106 “Rohingya are still coming across the border due to Arakan Army clearance operations against ARSA”, a humanitarian agency official in Cox’s Bazar noted.107 Getting a clear picture of how the Rohingya who remain in Rakhine State see the prospect of an insurgency against the Arakan Army is challenging, given the communications blackout across the state. Even so, interviews with Rohingya and other informed sources suggest that views on armed struggle are far more mixed than in the refugee camps, as many fear getting directly caught up in the conflict or being persecuted by the Arakan Army as a result of it. Some also worry about losing their land should they have to flee to Bangladesh. A Rohingya living in Maungdaw said armed groups have little support in his community. “People who live in the refugee camps, they have nothing, they are helpless – so it’s easy to persuade them with a few words”, he said. “The majority of us in Rakhine, we don’t support or endorse these groups at all. We live in fear of all armed groups”.108 D. Ramifications within Myanmar A Rohingya insurgency would not only face strong and violent opposition from the Arakan Army – it would also find little support among Myanmar’s other political or armed groups. In the post-coup struggle against the military regime, nearly all ethnic armed groups and resistance forces consider the powerful Arakan Army an important partner. While it has mostly shunned political cooperation, the group has provided extensive training and support to Burman resistance groups, particularly those based along Rakhine State’s periphery. It is hard to imagine that any of these forces would takes sides with Rohingya armed groups against the Arakan Army. By fighting one of the military regime’s most formidable adversaries, the Rohingya would be inviting opprobrium from across the spectrum of political and armed groups, as well as the public. Conflict between the Arakan Army and Rohingya forces would likely undo some of the progress made in the way the community is perceived within Myanmar. Following the 2012 communal violence and 2016-2017 ARSA attacks, anti-Rohingya sentiment soared in Myanmar. But after the coup, as members of the majority Bur104 “AA executes search and clearance operations at ARSA camps in former Mel De Village, northern Maungdaw township”, Narinjara, 26 February 2025. “Reports of fighting between AA and ARSA near Mel De village in Maungdaw township”, Narinjara, 19 February 2025 [Burmese]. 105 Crisis Group interview, researcher, March 2025. 106 “ARSA-AA clashes escalate in northern Maungdaw as ULA/AA imposes night curfew, launches clearance operation”, Rohingya Khobor, 1 April 2025; “Rohingya face fresh persecution as AA crackdown spreads across northern Maungdaw”, Rohingya Khobor, 6 April 2025. 107 Crisis Group interview, humanitarian agency official based in Cox’s Bazar, March 2025. 108 Crisis Group interview, Rohingya man living in Maungdaw, March 2025.