Bangladesh/Myanmar: The Dangers of a Rohingya Insurgency Crisis Group Asia Report N°348, 18 June 2025 Page 15 There is also a risk that declining aid could shift Bangladesh’s calculations, including its commitment to ensuring that refugee repatriation – if and when that happens – is safe, voluntary and dignified.92 Dhaka’s commitment to respect voluntary repatriation following the mass refugee arrivals of 2017 was predicated on an understanding that donors would provide adequate funding for the humanitarian response. If the money dries up, some in Bangladesh might start arguing for more coercive tactics to repatriate refugees. In such circumstances, supporting Rohingya armed groups might also become a more attractive strategy for Dhaka. 92 Previous repatriation programs, in the late 1970s and early 1990s, were successful in sending Rohingya back to Myanmar in part because they employed force or coercion. The fact that so many people were forced to flee again in 2017 illustrates why such an approach is unsustainable and why it is important to instead pursue safe, voluntary and dignified repatriation.