Bangladesh/Myanmar: The Dangers of a Rohingya Insurgency Crisis Group Asia Report N°348, 18 June 2025 Page 10 35-year-old man from Camp 13, recounting how “the Rakhine community” helped the Myanmar military in cracking down on Rohingya in 2017.59 As years pass, there is also a sense among refugees that donors are abandoning them, a sentiment that is only likely to increase as foreign aid declines (see Section III.C below). “We need an armed group because the only way we will get our rights is with our own hands”, asserted a refugee from Camp 10.60 So far, ARSA has spearheaded the fight in northern Rakhine, posting regular videos to social media of its fighters firing weapons, apparently in Rakhine State. These attacks appear to have targeted civilians more than the Arakan Army: one report claimed that the group had killed at least twenty civilians and injured more than 30 in Maungdaw and Buthidaung townships over the past year.61 Rohingya sources say these videos are important for the group’s fundraising efforts among expatriates in countries such as Malaysia and Saudi Arabia. In late March, ARSA stepped up its offensive, launching simultaneous attacks on Arakan Army positions in Maungdaw and Buthidaung (see Section IV.C below). This campaign began after Bangladesh arrested the group’s leader, Attaullah Abu Ammar Jununi, on the southern outskirts of Dhaka on 18 March.62 Sources say the security forces turned against Jununi because he was “inflexible”, while the interim government wanted to see him detained as a gesture to the Arakan Army. Following his arrest, the group warned it “would be a grave miscalculation” to assume it “signifies the demise of ARSA”.63 Now under the leadership of “ground commander” Ustad Khaled (also known as “Master Khaled”), ARSA remains a force both in the refugee camps and across the border. Meanwhile, other Rohingya groups claim they are preparing to join the fight in Rakhine. “Bangladesh and others are trying to resolve [repatriation] politically and we’re waiting for the results. If they can’t, then we will do it ourselves”, said a senior RSO official. “We will start a war against the Arakan Army if they ignore our rights”.64 There are also indications that the Myanmar military is planning to support Rohingya armed groups against the Arakan Army so as to weaken its rival. In May, the regime reportedly dispatched a Rohingya man from Rakhine to Bangladesh for meetings with Rohingya armed group leaders in Cox’s Bazar.65 During these talks, the man promised that Naypyitaw would provide weapons if the armed groups could build up their forces sufficiently.66 Whether or not insurgency expands in northern Rakhine, there is a risk that the truce between the armed groups will break down, particularly since it was largely forced on them by Bangladesh’s security agencies. The senior RSO official told Crisis 59 Crisis Group interview, Rohingya refugee from Camp 13, February 2025. Crisis Group interview, Rohingya refugee from Camp 10, February 2025. 61 “Militia training compulsory in Rakhine State townships under AA control, says AA source”, DVB, 24 March 2025. 62 “Armed Rohingya group’s leader is arrested in Bangladesh”, The New York Times, 19 March 2025. 63 See Telegram post by ARSA Freedom Soldiers (Harrakah Al-Yakin), @ojGpxxIVpSUwYTg1, 5:11am, 19 March 2025. 64 Ibid. 65 Crisis Group interviews, Rohingya refugees, analysts and humanitarian agency officials with knowledge of the situation, May 2025. 66 Ibid. 60