Figure 6 Predicted multidimensional poverty (by cumulative shock exposure) Figure 6. Predicted multidimensional poverty by cumulative shock exposure Predicted probability of MPI poverty, holding structural household characteristics constant Repeated exposure progressively Predicted probability of MPI poverty erodes household coping capacity 71.6% 76.6% 81.1% 84.9% 66.0% 60.1% 53.9% 47.6% 41.4% 35.5% 24.8% 0 29.9% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 No shocks Number of shocks experienced From no shocks to ten shocks: predicted poverty rises by about 56 percentage points Source: PPS 2025 (UNDP) With zero shocks, predicted poverty stands at around 25 percent. Each additional shock Conflict is the most powerful amplifier adds roughly five percentage points, with the of poverty, because unlike other shocks, curve rising to 41 percent after three shocks, conflict affects multiple dimensions of 54 percent after five, and 81 percent after ten. The pattern is consistent: repeated exposure, well-being at once. regardless of shock type, progressively erodes coping capacity, as assets are depleted, savings exhausted, and household buffers diminished, pushing households deeper into deprivation with each successive event. Each shock type damages the same channels through which households maintain well-being, such as income, assets, food security and service access, but does so through different entry points and at different speeds. Economic shocks act primarily through income volatility, with deprivation cascading from household budgets into food and service consumption. Natural hazard shocks act through physical damage to crops, housing and infrastructure, with effects often concentrated geographically and seasonally. Conflict shocks act simultaneously across all channels, disrupting livelihoods, markets, mobility and service delivery at once, which is why the per-household amplification is largest. The cumulative analysis adds a temporal dimension: even when individual shocks are modest, their repeated effects on the same household can produce levels of deprivation as severe as those caused by a single acute event such as conflict. Taken together, the evidence in this section shows that poverty in Myanmar is structurally embedded and contextually shaped, with shocks amplifying both household and area-level vulnerabilities. Two states/regions or household groups with similar MPI headcount levels may face very different poverty dynamics, with one driven primarily by structural disadvantage, another by contextual pressures, and another by repeated shock exposure, each requiring a different programmatic response. Section 4 turns from how poverty is generated to who experiences it most acutely, profiling multidimensional poverty across income, employment, education, migration and gender. L AYE R S O F DE P R I VAT I O N : M u l t i di m en si on a l Pov er t y i n M y anmar 27