3 Drivers and Amplifiers of Poverty Key Messages 01 02 03 18 Poverty reflects structural and contextual factors acting together: Nationally, observed MPI headcount (32.6%) closely matches predicted probability (32.1%), indicating that long-standing household characteristics, such as low education, insecure work and limited income, explain most baseline deprivation. In conflict-affected areas, however, poverty levels are far higher than household characteristics alone would suggest. Conflict and access constraints push poverty far beyond structural predictions: In Kayah (68.1% observed versus 51.1% predicted) and Rakhine (68.4% observed versus 39.3% predicted), conflict, displacement and restricted mobility substantially raise poverty above what household characteristics alone would predict. Shocks deepen poverty, with conflict shocks carrying the heaviest burden: More than half of households report economic shocks and around one in five face natural hazard shocks; conflict shocks affect fewer households, around one in ten, but are associated with the highest poverty levels, with over half of conflict-affected households classified as multidimensionally poor. As shocks accumulate, poverty risk rises sharply. LAYERS OF DEP RIVATION : Mu ltid im e n s io n a l Pov er t y i n M y a n m a r