Urban areas illustrate the high structural vulnerability (latent risk) profile: observed MPI headcount falls substantially below the predicted level (21.7% observed against 28.6% predicted), a gap of nearly seven percentage points. Urban households carry high structural vulnerability, including informal employment and limited asset buffers, that is partly offset by favourable contextual conditions such as better infrastructure, denser markets, service availability and more diverse employment opportunities. In contrast, rural areas exhibit a context-dominant profile, where observed MPI exceeds the predicted level (36.7% observed against 33.6% predicted). Weaker infrastructure, service gaps, and market constraints raise rural deprivation beyond what household characteristics alone would produce. However, this urban-rural distinction masks considerable state/region variation in how contextual factors mediate structural deprivation. Table 4 Predicted and observed MPI headcount, union and urban/rural Predicted MPI headcount Observed MPI headcount Gap (percentage point) Union 32.1% 32.6% 0.5 Urban 28.6% 21.7% -6.8 Rural 33.6% 36.7% 3.1 State and region profiles Three poverty profiles emerge across states/regions, reflecting varying combinations of structural and contextual conditions. The classification is based on the direction and magnitude of the gap between observed and predicted poverty. Figure 4 Poverty profiles across states/regions: Observed versus predicted MPI headcount gap Figure 4. Poverty profiles across states/regions: observed versus predicted MPI headcount gap Observed MPI headcount minus predicted MPI headcount (percentage points) Context-dominant poverty Structure-dominant poverty Observed poverty exceeds prediction High structural vulnerability Latent risk: observed poverty below prediction +29.1 +17.0 +12.5 +8.7 +4.5 hi ak R ne ah K ay n hi C Context-dominant ar y e Ay wa dy ai ag S ng +0.5 K ac n hi −0.9 −1.0 on ay M High structural vulnerability Source: PPS 2025 (UNDP) 20 yin Ka Structure-dominant −3.4 −3.5 −5.1 −5.7 −6.5 −10.0 l da an M −2.1 LAYERS OF DEP RIVATION : Mu ltid im e n s io n a l Pov er t y i n M y a n m a r n go n Ya i ry ha nt ni Ta go Ba an Sh y wa ag M y Na aw iT Py