2 Policy Brief No. 78 Toda Peace Institute The Political Context: An Emerging and Fragile Democracy A country fresh out of a military dictatorship Myanmar, previously known as Burma, was under a military dictatorship for nearly five decades. The country embarked on a democratic transition process in 2010. The National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Nobel prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, boycotted the 2010 election which had brought to power a former military general. In November 2015, the NLD won a landslide victory, taking effective control of the government in 2016. Complex power sharing arrangement Although the election of the NLD was a move away from military rule, the military continues to exert significant influence over Myanmar politics to this day. In line with the 2008 constitution, the military retains 25% of parliamentary seats as well as control of three key ministries (Defence, Home Affairs and Border Affairs), giving it direct authority over Myanmar’s armed forces, police and border guards. Former military officers also continue to occupy positions of authority across all levels of government, the judiciary and many state-owned enterprises. Diverse population Myanmar has a population of over 53 million. Due to its geographic location at the intersection of South, Southeast and East Asia, Myanmar’s population is very diverse. According to the Myanmar 2014 census, ethnic Bamar make up 68% of the population, while various ethnic minority groups make up the remaining 32%. The Bamar are predominantly Buddhist, while the country overall is 88% Buddhist, 6% Christian, 4% Muslim, and less than 1% Hindu and Animist. The military regime split Myanmar’s identity into eight major ethnic races, themselves broken down into 135 “national races”. The Rohingya, a Muslim minority from northern Rakhine State, are notably excluded from this list. Rising intercommunal tensions Although not new, the controversy around the citizenship rights of the Rohingya gained renewed focus as Myanmar engaged in its political transition. It was further intensified as tensions between ethnic Rakhine and Rohingya flared up following the alleged rape and murder of a Buddhist Rakhine woman in May 2012, and as attacks by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) in 2016 and 2017 triggered military clearance operations in the region, sending nearly a million Rohingya to flee to Bangladesh. As the Rohingya issue merged into a broader anti-Muslim narrative, tensions between Buddhist and Muslim communities have also escalated countrywide, including in communities where Buddhists and Muslims used to live in harmony. Deadly altercations took