The junta will step up forced conscription Since the 1990s, military leaders, including Sr. Gen. Than Shwe, sought to swell the army to over 500,000 troops, roughly 1% of the 55-56 million population.63 After losing tens of thousands during its attempted 5-year coup, combat troops have shrunk below 100,000,64 and require roughly 400,000 new troops to rebuild. Since Feb 2024, the regime has utilized the “People’s Military Service Law” to forcibly enlist about 80,000–100,000 recruits in 20 batches, as of 16 Dec 2025.65 To reach its target, the regime must forcibly conscript another 300,000–400,000 people (2–3% of the 14 million conscription-age population), a process that could take 5–7 years at the current rate.66 Junta officials have affirmed conscription will continue even after the sham election. 67 The junta reportedly threatened non-voters with forced conscription throughout all 3 phases of the sham election.68 Continuing Crackdowns It is increasingly likely that the sham election would be used to justify further political and armed crackdowns instead of creating an environment that may be conducive to political openings. In addition to locking up leaders and blocking key dialogue stakeholders from the sham election, junta boss Min Aung Hlaing has flagged that he will replace Aung San Suu Kyi as State Counsellor.69 The junta, which arrested a total of 30,397 political prisoners (a tenfold increase since the last sham election in 2010), continues to detain 22,793 under harsh and violent conditions, making this the highest number of political prisoners in Southeast Asia. The junta has imposed the death sentence on 173 people and executed several prisoners, while at least 2,000 have died in custody.70 While extremely small numbers of political prisoners have been released at national holidays, the junta has arrested and threatened to arrest higher numbers. Rohingya between Genocide and Conscription ● The Rohingya face cyclical persecution and forced displacement, with both the junta and AA posing threats, and no authority ensuring civilian protection or citizenship. ● The junta continues to actively promote perpetrators of genocide and reject accountability. ● Safe return is impossible under current conditions, as Rohingya would risk forced conscription by the junta or abuse by the AA, leaving them in perpetual peril without recognition or security. Rohingya continue to be persecuted and targeted - “new govt” offers no resolution In northern Arakan State, the junta had forcibly conscripted Rohingya youth amid intense 2023-2024 fighting against the AA. During 2024-2025, the renewed conflict and violence forced about 150,000 Rohingya refugees to flee to Bangladesh.71 After the AA seized control of the north, Rohingya armed groups—including Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)—also forcibly recruited Rohingya 63 ISP Myanmar (20 Feb 2024) PANDEMONIUM: The Conscription Law and Five Negative Potential Consequences ISP Myanmar (20 Feb 2024) PANDEMONIUM: The Conscription Law and Five Negative Potential Consequences 65 SHAN (23 Jan 2026) Ward/village administrators collect hundreds of thousands of baht from locals to recruit people for military service 66 VOA (2 Mar 2024) Myanmar’s Youth Leaders Fear Conscription Law 67 Irrawaddy (8 Jan 2026) Forced Conscription Set to Expand After Military-Staged Election, Local Sources Say 68 Irrawaddy (27 Jan 2026) Mandalay Residents ‘Pressured to Vote’ in Myanmar Junta’s Election; Myanmar Now (28 Dec 2025) အတ ကာက်တ ာ်းတ ကာငို့် အချ ြို့တတွ စစ် တပ်တ ွ ်းတကာက်ပဲွ တွင် မဲ ထ ညို့်ခဲို့ က သည်; BBC Burmese (28 Dec 2025) မဲမတပ်း င် 64 အကျ ်းဆက်တ တွရမယ်ဆိုတသ ဲို့ တင်းတတွ ပမ ြို့ ကကီ်းတတွမာ ထွက်တပေါ် 69 Irrawaddy (4 Feb 2026) Myanmar Junta Chief Rushes Through New Consultative Council Law AAPP (4 Feb 2026) Daily Briefing in Relation to the Military Coup 71 UN News (11 Jul 2025) 150,000 Rohingya flee to Bangladesh amid renewed Myanmar violence 70 13