Over the past four years, the social, political, and economic lives of the people in
Myanmar have undergone significant changes. These developments are interpreted
differently by various political actors—some view them as temporary disruptions that
could soon give way to a more promising future, while others fear that the country is
on the brink of becoming a failed state. But how do ordinary people perceive these
conflicts? What are their expectations? Given the tremendous amount of noise in the
information ecosystem these days, it is almost impossible to detect the true voices of
the people. The Blue Shirt team decided to speak directly with the public to bring out
their voices and break through the echo chamber of social media. From March 21 to
25, 2025, the Blue Shirt team interviewed 3,128 people from 237 townships across the
country. During the survey, respondents were asked about their perceptions and
expectations regarding the current situation in Myanmar—specifically, how they feel
about the Spring Revolution at present, whether they are optimistic or pessimistic,
hopeful or depressed, and about their daily struggles. As discussions around the
formation of new states or federal units—and even secession—become more frequent
among key stakeholders, we asked the public how they feel about these issues. In
addition, we asked their views on what they believe would be realistic and pragmatic
solutions to end the ongoing conflicts.
Since the Myanmar military staged a coup in 2021, it has been impossible to use
probability sampling methods—particularly for civic groups. Instead, purposive
sampling was employed, and the fieldwork was completed on March 25, 2025, three
days before a 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar. Two important
caveats are worth noting: First, because probability sampling was not used, the
findings may not fully represent the entire population of Myanmar.To ensure the
security and safety of both enumerators and respondents, only individuals associated
with the Blue Shirt were included. As a result, approximately 80 percent of respondents
reported being interested in politics. However, they do offer valuable insights into
prevailing societal trends. Second, as the fieldwork concluded before the earthquake,
we cannot determine whether public perceptions have remained the same or were
affected by the disaster.