information is throttled while the digital economy functions, severely infringing upon privacy and access to information. 5. Integrated online and offline surveillance The 2025 election and census provided data to upgrade legacy control mechanisms into a comprehensive surveillance network. Authorities will integrate the Person Scrutinisation and Monitoring System with biometric SIM registration, effectively digitising the SPDC-era guest registration system. Local officials and police will cross-reference physical checks against central digital records to screen people and conduct targeted raids based on data discrepancies, negating privacy and restricting movement for anyone wishing to reside anonymously. 6. Division of civil society A proxy government will trigger some return of international aid, forcing a split in civil society similar to the post-2010 transition. Strict enforcement of the Organisation Registration Law (2022) will compel groups to register as service providers or face prosecution. Some civil society organisations will choose to register and change their work to do so, while others will choose their independence and remain excluded. As in 2010, donors engaging with the government will likely, intentionally or otherwise, compel civil society to sanitise development work, stripping rights-based approaches. This policy undermines freedom of association and excludes organisations that refuse to remove rights from their work. 7. Declining voices due to aid withdrawal The simultaneous withdrawal of major donors threatens to dismantle the independent media and civil society infrastructure. With USAID funding having ceased and Sweden phasing out assistance by June 2026, the pillars of support for exile media and independent civil society groups are collapsing. This loss of funding will drive a sharp decline in independent reporting and information flows about what is happening in Myanmar, particularly outside the mainstream. The impact is concrete, with women's groups losing safe houses and rights defenders losing digital security, infringing upon freedom of expression and ceding narrative space to state propaganda. 8. Diplomatic normalisation and transnational repression An “elected” proxy government will provide regional neighbours with diplomatic cover to re-engage, treating opposition members as criminals rather than political actors.