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Bangladesh/Myanmar: The Dangers of a Rohingya Insurgency Crisis Group Asia Report N°348, 18 June 2025 Transnational Crime and Geopolitical Contestation along the Mekong, Asia Report N°332, 18 August 2023. Treading a Rocky Path: The Ta’ang Army Expands in Myanmar’s Shan State, Asia Briefing N°177, 4 September 2023 (also available in Burmese). Calming the Long War in the Philippine Countryside, Asia Report N°338, 19 April 2024. Ethnic Autonomy and its Consequences in Postcoup Myanmar, Asia Briefing N°180, 30 May 2024. Breaking Away: The Battle for Myanmar’s Rakhine State, Asia Report N°339, 27 August 2024. Dammed in the Mekong: Averting an Environmental Catastrophe, Asia Report N°343, 7 October 2024. Disquiet on the Western Front: A Divided Resistance in Myanmar’s Chin State, Asia Briefing N°181, 19 March 2025. A Rebel Border: India’s Evolving Ties with Myanmar after the Coup, Asia Briefing N°182, 11 April 2025. Page 29

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Bangladesh/Myanmar: The Dangers of a Rohingya Insurgency

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Burmese
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Topic

Military Coup
Rohingya Crisis

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International Crisis Group (ICG)

Date Published: Jun 18, 2025

Abstract: The Arakan Army’s defeat of the Myanmar military in northern Rakhine State has shifted Rohingya armed groups onto the front foot. After years of bloody infighting in Bangladesh’s refugee camps, these groups, which claim to represent the Rohingya Muslim minority in Rakhine, agreed in November 2024 to work together to fight the Arakan Army, which draws support mainly from the state’s Buddhist majority. Since then, violence has fallen sharply in the refugee camps, while the groups have expanded recruitment. At the same time, the Bangladeshi government has started engaging tentatively with the Arakan Army, which controls all of Myanmar’s border with the country. Mounting attacks by Rohingya armed groups in Rakhine are not only likely to undermine these talks, but could also heighten anti-Rohingya sentiment in Myanmar, damaging prospects for the repatriation of up to one million refugees. Bangladesh should curb the influence of Rohingya armed groups in the camps and step up dialogue with the Arakan Army, which for its part should take concrete steps to show it can govern in the interests of all communities.

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Bangladesh/Myanmar: The Dangers of a Rohingya Insurgency

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