Bangladesh/Myanmar: The Dangers of a Rohingya Insurgency Crisis Group Asia Report N°348, 18 June 2025 Page 24 Setting such a virtuous cycle in motion will require willingness from all sides. The Arakan Army should meet its side of the bargain by resuming earlier attempts at dialogue with Rohingya refugees. To change perceptions within the camps and undermine support for a Rohingya insurgency, it should assure refugees that it is not opposed to repatriation or to fundamental rights, such as citizenship and property ownership, for the Rohingya. D. Foreign Support Continued international aid for the Rohingya refugees will also be essential to counter the risk of an insurgency emerging from the camps. Refugees are largely reliant on foreign donors for food, shelter, sanitation, health care and other forms of assistance. Already, the sense among Rohingya that they can no longer depend on international support, either to sustain themselves in Bangladesh or to push for their return to Myanmar, is galvanising support for armed struggle. Reductions in support and services will play into the hands of Rohingya armed groups and criminal gangs. Ideally, the U.S. would reverse its decision to cut its contribution to the UN-led humanitarian response, but this prospect seems remote. Making up for the funding shortfall will be challenging, but other major donors such as the European Union and its member states, as well as the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, Japan and Türkiye, should step up. Further development assistance, especially from international financial institutions, and aid from non-traditional donors – particularly Gulf Arab states – could also help mitigate the impact. Even if other donors increase their contributions, they are unlikely to completely fill the vacuum left by the U.S., especially at a time when humanitarian needs are at an historic high worldwide. It is therefore essential that UN agencies and donors work with the Bangladeshi government to build Rohingya self-reliance. The interim government has been more open to the idea of allowing livelihood opportunities for refugees than its predecessor, which regarded these initiatives as undermining the path toward repatriation. But the likely decline in donor support means that all sides now need to move much faster in this area. To begin with, small businesses should be allowed to operate in the camps. In practice, these already exist, but legalising them could allow far more to open and trim operating costs, such as by making it easier for Rohingya to get supplies from wholesalers. Many Rohingya – mainly men – already work illegally outside the camps, in agriculture, construction and other sectors. Creating avenues for them to work legally while mitigating any harm to Bangladeshis is essential. This step would also enable the UN to direct humanitarian assistance, particularly food support, to those who are unable to work, such as households headed by women. Granting legal access to SIM cards and mobile money would also help reduce overhead and improve safety, among other benefits.