Table of Contents Executive Summary................................................................................................................... i I. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 II. Rohingya Armed Groups .................................................................................................. 3 A. Controlling the Camps ............................................................................................... 3 B. Aligning with the Regime .......................................................................................... 4 C. Damage to Communal Relations ............................................................................... 5 III. A Rohingya Insurgency in the Making? ........................................................................... 7 A. Harmony and Unity? ................................................................................................. 7 B. Bangladesh’s Position ................................................................................................ 11 C. The Impact of Funding Cuts ...................................................................................... 13 IV. Anticipating the Fallout .................................................................................................... 16 A. Control of the Refugee Camps ................................................................................... 16 B. Bangladesh’s Relations with the Arakan Army ......................................................... 17 C. Conflict and Reprisals ................................................................................................ 18 D. Ramifications within Myanmar ................................................................................. 19 V. The Way Forward ............................................................................................................. 21 A. Bangladesh’s Approach .............................................................................................. 21 B. Creating Space for Civil Society ................................................................................. 23 C. Inclusive Government in Rakhine ............................................................................. 23 D. Foreign Support ......................................................................................................... 24 VI. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 25 APPENDICES A. Map of Arakan Army Control in Myanmar’s Rakhine and Southern Chin States ........... 26 B. About the International Crisis Group .............................................................................. 27 C. Crisis Group Reports and Briefings on Asia since 2022 .................................................. 28 D. Crisis Group Board of Trustees ........................................................................................ 30