Final Report Chapter 3 Development Status and Problem in ICT Sector Table 3.3-3 Transition of Telephone Density Country name Cambodia 12.74% (2006) 96.17% (2011) Period of Achieve (year) 5 Indonesia 13.51% (2004) 88.08% (2010) 6 Laos 11.43% (2005) 87.16% (2011) 6 Philippines 15.40% (2001) 82.43% (2009) 8 Thailand 11.82% (2001) 78.14% (2007) 6 Viet Nam 11.54% (2005) 87.11% (2008) 3 Myanmar 10.00% (2013) 80.00% (2016) 4 10% Density (year) 80% Density (year) Source: prepared by survey team based on the data of ITU (http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/statistics/) As an exceptional case, Viet Nam achieved the target only by 3 years and reasons and background are considered in comparison with the Myanmar case. Viet Nam started the mobile phone service in 1992 and MobiPhone and Vinaphone provided the services in 1990s. In 2002, private carriers started to enter into the service providers and 7 (seven) carriers were providing services in 2012. The period rapidly increasing the density from 2005 to 2007, low price terminal devices and package tariff system had been introduced by new carriers which were the market-oriented strategy for getting new customers. This is the main reason why 80% density target was achieved only on 3 (three) years period. During the year between 2005 and 2008 of high economic growth (nominal GDP started to increase with quadratic curve), mobile phone density had been increasing. Viet Nam completed to join in WTO in 2007 and under the rising economic situation in Viet Nam caused high growth rate of mobile phone density. It would be expected that setting up the target of 50% in 2015, 80% in 2016 by President Thein Sein would be announced based on achievement in Viet Nam (52.9% in 2007 to 87% in 2008) as the background. As seen from Table 3.3-2, Viet Nam is also one of the typical countries where the penetration of fixed phone was stopped and shifted to mobile phone which had become dominant telecommunication means. Now let consider whether Myanmar is also able to follow up the same development process as Viet Nam based on the figures in Table 3.3-4 and 3.3-5. Firstly, purchasing power parity (PPP) in Viet Nam in 2005 is USD 2,142, while USD1,405 in Myanmar in 2012. In consideration of disposable income, the difference of USD700 is considered rather big. Next, in comparison with economic growth rate, Viet Nam grew 8% or more annually from 2005 to 2007, while annual economic growth rate in Myanmar is estimated by 6% or more from 2013 to 2015 in accordance with IMF evaluation. In case that economic growth rate differs for more than 1.5% during 3 (three) continuous years, the difference of actual economy would be larger than expected. On the other hand, in Viet Nam it took 3 (three) years for starting rapid increase of subscribers by joining new carriers in 2002 and another 3 (three) years was passed from 10% density to 80% density. It would be evaluated that total period for achieving 80% density required for 6 (six) years. Judging from these data, it seems very challengeable target to achieve 80% density for 4 (four) years, even under the various different components in Myanmar. 3-11