(III) HIGH STRUCTURAL VULNERABILITY (LATENT RISK) In these states/regions, predicted poverty exceeds the observed MPI headcount, indicating that many households exhibit structural characteristics associated with a higher underlying risk of multidimensional poverty than current measurements reflect. These households possess structural risk factors, including informal employment, low asset buffers, and limited education, that are partially moderated by favourable area-level conditions. They are not currently classified as multidimensionally poor but are highly sensitive to shocks and economic disruption. Two sub-patterns emerge within this group. In Yangon and Nay Pyi Taw, urban economic infrastructure, such as market density, service availability, and employment diversity, buffers households whose structural profiles would otherwise place them at considerably higher risk. In Magway and Bago, agricultural market access, particularly Magway's oil-crop production for a domestic market that remains import-dependent, moderates the expression of underlying vulnerability without eliminating it. In Shan, Tanintharyi and Kayin, proximity to international borders adds remittance flows and cross-border trade as additional moderating channels. Identifying this group is analytically and programmatically important. Lower observed MPI outcomes reflect area-level averages and do not imply resilience for individual households, particularly migrants, informal workers or those without asset buffers. These households sit close to the poverty threshold and are vulnerable to transitions into multidimensional poverty when conditions change, through economic contraction, conflict spillover, natural hazards or the withdrawal of moderating infrastructure. Resilience-building interventions targeting this group can reduce future poverty transitions and avoid reversals in well-being that are costly and difficult to reverse once they occur. Persona 3: High structural vulnerability (latent risk) Ma Nu is living in a peri-urban area of Yangon as a migrant. With secondary education, Ma Nu works in informal, short-term employment. Ma Nu benefits from proximity to markets, services and employment opportunities, allowing basic needs to be met during periods of stable income. Children attend school and healthcare is physically accessible, though often costly. Housing is informal and insecure, and Ma Nu has little savings or access to formal social protection. Income fluctuates month to month. When daily work is unavailable or wages are delayed, rent payments are postponed and utility bills accumulate. Food purchases are adjusted first, with reduced meal diversity and quantity, while healthcare visits are delayed unless absolutely necessary. Although schools and clinics are physically accessible, out-of-pocket expenses and lost work time limit consistent use. Housing insecurity and the absence of savings mean Ma Nu has little capacity to absorb even short disruptions. L AYE R S O F DE P R I VAT I O N : M u l t i di m en si on a l Pov er t y i n M y anmar 23