Conflict Analysis The weaponization of social media drives conflict in powerful ways that intersect with and exacerbate existing issues in specific contexts. For individuals, social media’s amplification power and highly targeted, personalized nature can exploit fundamental cognitive processes to implant dangerous information and influence susceptible people with greater efficiency than other means of communication. On a broader scale, these same qualities can polarize groups of people and lend credibility to rumors, further dividing and inciting violence between groups at risk of conflict. These drivers are evolving quickly — faster than traditional approaches to addressing information-borne threats. The following examples outline the various relationships between weaponization phenomena and conflict typologies. Their diversity illustrates the need for a detailed analysis in each context that takes stock of types of conflict, root causes, profiles of the actors involved and the role of weaponization. Conflict Typology45 Potential roles of social media weaponization Example Interstate warfare: a conflict between two or more governments As part of a conventional warfare strategy, social media can provide a vector for state-supported information operations, including coordinated disinformation campaigns designed to influence public perception, confuse adversaries and weaken their internal relationships. Russia’s coordinated disinformation campaigns in Ukraine46 Civil war/ state-formation conflict: a conflict between a government and nongovernment party Non-state actors use social media platforms to organize violent opposition against states, publicize their causes and secure resources from international allies. Online discourse is partitioned along ideological, identity or linguistic lines, generating echo chambers that maintain stereotypes, polarization and grievance. The role of social media in the initiation and maintenance of Syria’s civil war47 Popular protest (and riots): popular demonstrations, often involving a spontaneous action by unorganized, unaffiliated members of society Social media platforms have enabled citizens to mobilize more effectively in opposition to oppressive regimes. This mobilization, even if it is nonviolent in intention, can bring populations into violent conflict with the security organs of the state, who may target opponents identified online or shut down the internet. The use of social media to organize popular protests in Egypt in 2010-2011 Intercommunal conflict: violence between non-state groups that occur along shared identities. Hate speech or dangerous speech purposefully or unintentionally generated by members of one identity group is spread and amplified on social media, driving animosity and triggering violence against members of another identity group. Hate speech and intercommunal violence in Myanmar Electoral Violence: violence used by political operatives and supporters to achieve their Social media platforms amplify political competition between constituencies divided along ideological or identity lines, in some cases inciting hatred and violence. Electoral violence in Kenya since 2008 45 Conflict types rarely have universally accepted definitions. The descriptions here have been drawn from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) Project, the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), and www.understandingconflict.org 46 Boyte, K.J. (2017) An analysis of the social-media technology, tactics, and narratives used to control perception in the propaganda war over Ukraine. Journal of Information Warfare. 16:1 47 Lynch, M., Freelon, D., Aday, S. (2014) Syria’s socially mediated civil war. United States Institute of Peace. Available: https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/176084/PW91-Syrias%20Socially%20Mediated%20Civil%20War.pdf MERCY CORPS The Weaponization of Social Media: How social media can spark violence and what can be done about it 16