return to those same conditions of life, where the cycle of persecution begins again. The regime’s ongoing genocidal intent towards the Rohingya group should be inferred from its unrelenting use of these persecutory laws, policies, and practices. Ever-increasing numbers of Rohingya are attempting to flee Rakhine State. According to data compiled by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), more than 7,800 Rohingya attempted to flee Myanmar by boat in 2024 – an 80 per cent increase compared to the previous year. The proportion of women increased to almost a third, while children accounted for 44 percent of Rohingya fleeing by boat. Over 650 people died or were reported missing enroute in 2024.138 This year, 427 Rohingya are believed to have died at sea in the month of May alone in back-to-back incidents.139 High seas during the monsoon season make the journey even more perilous. In a joint statement, 26 Rohingya organisations said, “The drowning of Rohingya fleeing persecution and hunger has become a constant reality which the international community cannot ignore. The fact that it is happening during the monsoon season is a sign of just how desperate the situation for Rohingya has become.”140 The few people who survived – including children - were picked up by junta authorities and detained. Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group The jurisprudence of the ad hoc tribunals has clarified that the genocidal act of causing serious bodily or mental harm ‘need not cause permanent and irremediable harm, but it must involve harm that goes beyond temporary unhappiness, embarrassment or humiliation. It must be harm that results in a grave and long-term disadvantage to a person’s ability to lead a normal and constructive life’.141 According to the ICTY, ‘the bodily or mental harm caused must be of such a serious nature as to contribute or tend to contribute to the destruction of the group’ and ‘may include torture; rape; and non-fatal physical violence that causes disfigurement or serious injury to the external or internal organs’.142 The ICTY has further established that threats of death and ‘knowledge of impending death’ are examples of serious mental harm.143 Ongoing forced recruitment into the Myanmar military Against the backdrop of the appalling conditions of life inflicted on the Rohingya group in Rakhine State by the regime, the Myanmar military has routinely targeted Rohingya men and youth for forced recruitment for over a year now, since February 2024.144 It is very difficult to verify exactly how many 138 UNHCR, ‘Focus on saving lives, urges UNHCR as more Rohingya flee by sea’ (8 January 2025) available at <https://www.unhcr.org/asia/news/press-releases/focus-saving-lives-urges-unhcr-more-rohingya-flee-sea> accessed 3 June 2025. 139 UNHCR, ‘UNHCR fears extreme desperation led to deaths of 427 Rohingya at sea’ (23 May 2025) available at <https://www.unhcr.org/news/press-releases/unhcr-fears-extreme-desperation-led-deaths-427-rohingya-sea> accessed 3 June 2025. 140 Joint Statement, ‘Mass Drowning of Rohingya Refugees: A Tragedy Fueled by Arakan Army Brutality and Global Indifference’ (29 May 2025) available at <https://brouk.org.uk/mass-drowning-of-rohingya-refugees-a-tragedy-fueled-byarakan-army-brutality-and-global-indifference/> accessed 3 June 2025. 141 ICTY, Prosecutor v. Krstić, Trial Chamber, Judgment, 2 August 2001, IT-98-33-T, [513]; ICTR, Prosecutor v. Akayesu, Trial Chamber, Judgment, 2 September 1998, ICTR-96-4-T, [502] stating that the bodily or mental harm need not be ‘permanent or irremediable’. Cited in Mark Klamberg, Jonas Nilsson and Antonio Angotti (eds.) Commentary on the Law of the International Criminal Court: The Statute, Volume I (2nd ed.) Torkel Opsahl Academic E-Publisher (2023). 142 ICTY, Prosecutor v. Mladić, Trial Chamber, Judgment, 22 November 2017, IT-09-92-T [3433]; Prosecutor v. Karadžić, Trial Chamber, Judgment, 24 March 2016, IT-95-5/18-T [543–545]. Cited in Klamberg eds. op. cit. 132. 143 Prosecutor v. Zdravko Tolimir, Case No. IT-05-88/2-A, ICTY A. Ch., Judgment, 8 April 2015 [206]. 144 BROUK first received reports that IDP Camp Management Committees in Sittwe had been ordered to recruit Rohingya for the Myanmar military on 20 January, a few weeks before the first batch of Rohingya men and youth were taken for conscription. 25