they had to follow through with promises of a democratic transition. The most effective
way to prevent a Tatmadaw retreat from political, social, and economic power was to
carry out its BGF plan.
In the years following the 2010 general elections and Burma’s “overnight”
democratic transition, the military continued its pattern of manipulating ceasefire deals to
advance its agenda. In 2015, the central government and military, along with the
country’s major armed ethnic groups, agreed on a draft ceasefire deal that would
eventually develop into the landmark National Ceasefire Agreement (NCA). Many
Tatmadaw officials and aligned foreign diplomats hoped the NCA would cause ethnic
groups to abandon their decades-long fight for autonomy and self-determination (Weng,
2019).
The process behind the peace talks and the NCA itself offers insight into the
attitudes and behaviors of the military post-democratization. Significantly, in the current
political climate it is clear that while the military and executive branches of government
often disagree, they find common cause when dealing with ethnic groups and potential
insurgents; both would benefit from a longstanding peace in the nation’s border regions.
The Tatmadaw and its BGF only stand to expand their influence in border regions if nonstate armed groups participate in a cooperative relationship with the central government.
A successful NCA would likely be used by the military as another method of silencing
dissent and disseminating their ideology in a way that garners civilian support in regions
historically difficult for the military to control.
In recent years, multiple ethnic armed organizations have accused the Tatmadaw
of breaking the terms of the NCA. Groups including the Karern, Mon, Kachin and
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