Viewed as the outcome of a contest between two ideas of state sovereignty,8 as well as an elite struggle over personal power, the timing of Min Aung Hlaing’s coup becomes comprehensible. The general faced compulsory retirement from his role as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces in June 2021; his term had already been extended for an additional five years in 2016.9 Stepping down from his position meant relinquishing the power to oversee two vast military-controlled business conglomerates, the Myanmar Economic Corporation (MEC) and Myanmar Economic Holdings Limited (MEHL). Previous commanders of the Tatmadaw have more or less successfully exited the stage while remaining éminences grises thanks to the support of the loyal military subordinates who became their successors. But democratic civilian governance threatens this informal chain of succession on the part of military strongmen which in practice resembles monarchical succession.10 The NLD’s sweep of the November 2020 elections represented an increasing side-lining of the military’s political allies, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). It raised the possibility of a unity government, including parties representing ethnic minorities, that would pose a direct challenge to the military.11 Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD had up to that point gambled with a dangerous means-ends calculus. They maintained a tacit, if not explicit, agreement with the military to not prosecute the generals for decades of war crimes and crimes against Ingrid Jordt, “Notes on the Coup in Myanmar: Karmic Kingship, Legitimacy and Sovereignty”, 6 April 2021, https://contendingmodernities.nd.edu/globalcurrents/myanmar-coup-kingship/) (accessed 12 April 2021). 8 9 “Myanmar Army Chief Min Aung Hlaing Earns Five-Year Extension as Negotiations Around Transition of Power Continue”, 13 February 2016, https:// www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/1912525/myanmar-armychief-min-aung-hlaing-earns-five-year (accessed 17 March 2021). Monarchical succession in pre-colonial Myanmar proceeded both by “blood and bone” succession principles and by the principle of the strength of a mighty man of endeavour in protection of the Buddhist realm. The Tatmadaw has conformed to this last pattern in its idea of being the guardian of a unitary state. 10 Shoon Naing and Sam Aung Moon, “Suu Kyi’s Party Pledges Unity Government After Election ‘Landslide’”, Reuters, 12 November 2020, https://www.reuters. com/article/myanmar-election-idUSKBN27T0DS (accessed 26 March 2021). 11 4 21-J07648 01 Trends_2021-7.indd 4 28/4/21 9:34 AM