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Public Perceptions of the Present and Future of Myanmar 26 2.4 Elections The Myanmar military staged a coup, alleging election fraud and subsequently promised to hold new elections—a promise that has been repeatedly postponed over the past few years. However, starting this year, the State Administration Council has repeatedly stated that general elections will be held in 2025. The Blue Shirt team asked respondents for their views. While a majority (74%) believe the country is not ready to hold elections, about one in ten respondents expressed support for holding elections this year. 18% Strongly Disagree Somewhat disagree Somewhat agree Strongly agree DK/RA 3% 6% 51% 23% Fig-29 : Elections in 2025 (Overall) n=2808 Strongly Disagree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree States 43% 28% Regions Geography 8% 54% Yangon City Strongly agree 44% 22% 5% 9% 1% 22% Magway/Sagaing 70% Men 3% 18% 2% 18% 23% 20% 53% 23% DK/RA 6% 2% 1% 3% 8% 15% Gender Women 49% Between 18 and 25 Age 44% Between 26 and 35 24% High School completed and above 24% 57% No High School 25% 52% 20% 23% 40% 60% Fig-30 : Elections in 2025 3% 20% 3% 19% 5% 3% 17% 2% 16% 5% 3% 17% 6% 3% 22% 50% 0% 5% 9% 51% 36 and above Education 23% 3% 80% 17% 100%

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Four Years of Resistance: PublicPerceptions of thePresent and Future of Myanmar

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Language

Burmese
English

Topic

Military Coup

Author(s)

Blue Shirt Initiative (BSI)

Date Published: Jul 4, 2025

Abstract: Over the past four years, the social, political, and economic lives of the people in Myanmar have undergone significant changes. These developments are interpreted differently by various political actors—some view them as temporary disruptions that could soon give way to a more promising future, while others fear that the country is on the brink of becoming a failed state. But how do ordinary people perceive these conflicts? What are their expectations? Given the tremendous amount of noise in the information ecosystem these days, it is almost impossible to detect the true voices of the people. The Blue Shirt team decided to speak directly with the public to bring out their voices and break through the echo chamber of social media. From March 21 to 25, 2025, the Blue Shirt team interviewed 3,128 people from 237 townships across the country. During the survey, respondents were asked about their perceptions and expectations regarding the current situation in Myanmar—specifically, how they feel about the Spring Revolution at present, whether they are optimistic or pessimistic, hopeful or depressed, and about their daily struggles. As discussions around the formation of new states or federal units—and even secession—become more frequent among key stakeholders, we asked the public how they feel about these issues. In addition, we asked their views on what they believe would be realistic and pragmatic solutions to end the ongoing conflicts. Since the Myanmar military staged a coup in 2021, it has been impossible to use probability sampling methods—particularly for civic groups. Instead, purposive sampling was employed, and the fieldwork was completed on March 25, 2025, three days before a 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar. Two important caveats are worth noting: First, because probability sampling was not used, the findings may not fully represent the entire population of Myanmar.To ensure the security and safety of both enumerators and respondents, only individuals associated with the Blue Shirt were included. As a result, approximately 80 percent of respondents reported being interested in politics. However, they do offer valuable insights into prevailing societal trends. Second, as the fieldwork concluded before the earthquake, we cannot determine whether public perceptions have remained the same or were affected by the disaster.

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BSI_National_Survey_Jun_2025_EN.pdf
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BSI_National_Survey_Jun_2025_MM.pdf
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Myanmar Internet Project

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Four Years of Resistance: PublicPerceptions of thePresent and Future of Myanmar

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