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Blue Shirt Initiative 15 1.7 Secession There has been both concern and support for the possibility of some parts of Myanmar seceding from the country, with some expressing opposition and others expressing approval, especially after more territory came under the control of ethnic armed groups. The Blue Shirt team asked the respondents if they agreed with this potential outcome. Overall, nearly half of the respondents disapprove, saying the country should remain united, whereas nearly one-third approve. While respondents from states are almost evenly divided (40 percent disapprove and 42 percent support secession), those from Magaw and Sagaing show a strong rejection of secession, with 55 percent opposed. 20% Remain united Allow to secede DK/RA 47% 33% Fig-13 : Secession (Overall) n=2808 Remain united States Geography 42% 40% Regions 49% Yangon City Age Education 19% 21% 30% 44% Magway/Sagaing Gender DK/RA Allow to secede 24% 32% 55% 13% 31% Men 48% Women 45% 32% 22% Between 18 and 25 43% 38% 18% Between 26 and 35 43% 37% 21% 36 and above 53% No High School 51% High School completed and above 34% 20% 22% 26% 24% 25% 45% 0% 18% 17% 38% 40% Fig-14 : Secession 60% 80% 100%

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Four Years of Resistance: PublicPerceptions of thePresent and Future of Myanmar

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Burmese
English

Topic

Military Coup

Author(s)

Blue Shirt Initiative (BSI)

Date Published: Jul 4, 2025

Abstract: Over the past four years, the social, political, and economic lives of the people in Myanmar have undergone significant changes. These developments are interpreted differently by various political actors—some view them as temporary disruptions that could soon give way to a more promising future, while others fear that the country is on the brink of becoming a failed state. But how do ordinary people perceive these conflicts? What are their expectations? Given the tremendous amount of noise in the information ecosystem these days, it is almost impossible to detect the true voices of the people. The Blue Shirt team decided to speak directly with the public to bring out their voices and break through the echo chamber of social media. From March 21 to 25, 2025, the Blue Shirt team interviewed 3,128 people from 237 townships across the country. During the survey, respondents were asked about their perceptions and expectations regarding the current situation in Myanmar—specifically, how they feel about the Spring Revolution at present, whether they are optimistic or pessimistic, hopeful or depressed, and about their daily struggles. As discussions around the formation of new states or federal units—and even secession—become more frequent among key stakeholders, we asked the public how they feel about these issues. In addition, we asked their views on what they believe would be realistic and pragmatic solutions to end the ongoing conflicts. Since the Myanmar military staged a coup in 2021, it has been impossible to use probability sampling methods—particularly for civic groups. Instead, purposive sampling was employed, and the fieldwork was completed on March 25, 2025, three days before a 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar. Two important caveats are worth noting: First, because probability sampling was not used, the findings may not fully represent the entire population of Myanmar.To ensure the security and safety of both enumerators and respondents, only individuals associated with the Blue Shirt were included. As a result, approximately 80 percent of respondents reported being interested in politics. However, they do offer valuable insights into prevailing societal trends. Second, as the fieldwork concluded before the earthquake, we cannot determine whether public perceptions have remained the same or were affected by the disaster.

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BSI_National_Survey_Jun_2025_EN.pdf
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BSI_National_Survey_Jun_2025_MM.pdf
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Myanmar Internet Project

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Four Years of Resistance: PublicPerceptions of thePresent and Future of Myanmar

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