Background: History of Hate Speech in Myanmar 2020 Elections The upcoming 2020 election is expected to place a significant spotlight on minority groups, which may aggravate inter-ethnic and religious divisions and tensions once again. The main political battle will likely be between the NLD and the USDP, both of which have been strategizing to gain more sup- port from ethnic minorities.172 However, other political parties may also play a major part in shaping the dynamic. In 2015, for example, in the hope that the NLD would help create a genuine federal union, many ethnic minority voters chose the NLD over their own ethnic parties; ethnic minority voters were sometimes even encouraged to do so by members of EAOs.173 That trust in the NLD has dis- sipated over time, particularly as peace talks have made little progress and violence and oppression against ethnic minorities has persisted in multiple areas.174 Activists and leaders of ethnic minority groups have in turn increasingly urged ethnic nationality parties to join together to compete more effectively in the 2020 election, a call that has sparked a series of mergers between different ethnic parties across the country.175 The current political context presents both critical challenges and opportunities for addressing hate speech effectively. Initiatives to garner electoral support, especially with the emergence of larger political entities that represent minorities, could fuel greater tension and contribute to the proliferation of intolerant messages, especially from ultranationalist groups. With the increased connectivity in Myanmar, several organizations, including Human Rights Watch, have raised concerns about “what will likely be a tsunami of hate speech and attacks in the 2020 election.”176 In October 2018, an independent review commissioned by Facebook also stressed that “the 2020 parliamentary elections are likely to be a flashpoint for hate speech, harassment, misinformation, incitement to violence, and other actions designed to undermine the political process.”177 At the same time, the need to court mi- nority voters may also allow for more substantive debates on how to improve inter-ethnic relations and advance the failing peace process. In preparation for the serious risks and the potential opportu- nities for positive reform, therefore, the next section takes a deeper look at the current landscape of hate speech in Myanmar and its effects. 172 173 174 175 176 177 (May 2016), para. 45. Han Htoo Khant Paing and Richard Rower, “Testing the Water: The 2018 By-Elections and Myanmar’s Political Future,” Tea Circle Oxford, December 19, 2018, https://teacircleoxford.com/2018/12/19/testing-the-water-the-2018by-elections-and-myanmars-political-future/. Aung Aung, “Myanmar’s Current Politics: Implications for the 2020 General Elections,” ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute (October 5, 2018), 4, https://www.iseas.edu.sg/images/pdf/ISEAS_Perspective_2018_61@50.pdf. Ibid. Ibid. Paresh Dave, “Facebook Says Human Rights Report Shows It Should Do More in Myanmar,” Reuters, November 5, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-facebook-myanmar/facebook-says-human-rights-report-shows-itshould-do-more-in-myanmar-idUSKCN1NB06Z. BSR, 25. 35