Bangladesh/Myanmar: The Dangers of a Rohingya Insurgency Crisis Group Asia Report N°348, 18 June 2025 Page 14 Humanitarian agency officials told Crisis Group the funding outlook was bleak, with support unlikely to return to anything like 2024 levels.86 Aid workers say they will inevitably be forced to make difficult decisions about how the reduced funding is allocated. “It’s a scary picture”, one said.87 Large cuts to food support were narrowly averted in late March, but funding has only been secured until September. This uncertainty comes as Bangladesh and its partners are trying to accommodate up to 200,000 newly arrived Rohingya who have fled northern Rakhine in the last eighteen months. To date, around 119,000 have been biometrically identified so they can get support, and none of the new arrivals have received housing assistance. As a result, most are staying with relatives, adding to the overcrowding and putting women at risk of gender-based violence.88 Less international support, particularly food assistance, will force refugees to make difficult decisions. For young men, joining armed groups and criminal gangs is an obvious coping strategy. There are also growing reports of women and girls marrying armed group members, while gender-based violence is on the rise as financial pressures stoke frustrations within households and male breadwinners lash out physically at their partners. Alongside the shutdown of refugee resettlement to the U.S., and with limited prospects for repatriation, diminishing aid will contribute to a growing sense of hopelessness among refugees that armed groups will try to exploit by offering financial incentives or in-kind support. A refugee told Crisis Group said they are already doing so: Many young people in the camps don’t have education or work. They will work for anyone who promises them money, power and opportunities. This is what they [armed groups] are doing now. That’s why many illiterate and jobless youths are joining them, even though educated people know that these groups will not be able to do anything for the community.89 Another option is paying people smugglers to reach third countries, with Malaysia the most popular destination. Rohingya refugees told Crisis Group that departures from southern Bangladesh and Rakhine have risen since the start of 2025; unusually, boats were continuing to leave into late May, outside the usual “sailing season”. “People used to avoid travelling at this time of year because of the weather, but now they are leaving continuously, in any season”, said one refugee. “From Teknaf, they take a small boat out to a big boat”.90 The rougher seas during the monsoon make these crossings far more dangerous for those on board; the UN High Commissioner for Refugees said it had received reports that 427 Rohingya had died in May when two boats capsized off the coast of Myanmar.91 other countries. “Bangladesh seeks to send 20,000 Rohingya refugees to the US annually”, bdnews 24.com, 10 September 2024. 86 Crisis Group interviews, humanitarian agency officials, February-March 2025. 87 Crisis Group interview, humanitarian agency official, March 2025. 88 Crisis Group interviews, humanitarian agency officials and recently arrived refugees, March and June 2025. 89 Crisis Group interview, Rohingya refugee living outside the camps, March 2025. 90 Crisis Group interview, Rohingya refugee, May 2025. 91 “UNHCR fears extreme desperation led to deaths of 427 Rohingya at sea”, UNHCR, 23 May 2025.