Bangladesh/Myanmar: The Dangers of a Rohingya Insurgency
Crisis Group Asia Report N°348, 18 June 2025
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accused the group of human rights violations, including arbitrary arrests.30 The allegations are most common in areas where Rohingya armed groups, particularly ARSA,
are or have been active (see Section III.A below). Rohingya who had recently arrived
in Bangladesh from Buthidaung township said they had left Rakhine because the Arakan Army had not allowed them to return to their villages since the May 2024 fighting
and they feared being detained by the group. “They are abducting, killing many people, accusing them of being members of ARSA”, a refugee told Crisis Group.31
At the same time, the Arakan Army has made attempts to improve relations with
Rohingya in more stable areas of northern Rakhine. For example, the group has incorporated Rohingya into the lower rungs of its administration and permitted some
of those displaced by fighting to return to their homes in Maungdaw and Buthidaung.32 But as a Rohingya from Maungdaw explained, in comments echoed by other
interviewees: “The AA calls this a ‘liberated area’, but for us that’s not the case. Our
choices are to try and survive under AA oppression and domination – or to flee to
Bangladesh”.33
In areas of central Rakhine that the Arakan Army also controls but where Muslims are a minority and Rohingya armed groups are not present, communal relations
appear to be much better, and Rohingya face less harsh treatment. “There is much
less tension because no Rohingya there took the side of the regime”, said a Rohingya
researcher with extensive contacts in Rakhine State.34 Getting a clear picture of the
state of communal tensions across Rakhine State is difficult, however, as the regime
has cut almost all telephone and internet service.
30
Crisis Group interviews, Rohingya in Rakhine State, February 2025.
Crisis Group interview, newly arrived Rohingya refugee, March 2025.
32
Ibid.
33
Crisis Group interview, Rohingya from Maungdaw, March 2025.
34
Crisis Group interview, Rohingya researcher, March 2025.
31