Bangladesh/Myanmar: The Dangers of a Rohingya Insurgency Crisis Group Asia Report N°348, 18 June 2025 Page 5 Rohingya armed groups and militia forces are likely to have been killed or injured in the fighting in Buthidaung and Maungdaw. C. Damage to Communal Relations The toll of the conflict raging in northern Rakhine extends beyond the number of people killed and injured. Up to 200,000 Rohingya have fled to Bangladesh, the majority over the past year.24 Thousands more have paid human smugglers to take them to Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and countries farther afield, many of them via dangerous boat journeys.25 The fighting between Rohingya armed groups and the Arakan Army, as well as the presence of Rohingya in regime-controlled militias, has also had a ruinous effect on communal relations. Hate speech on social media quickly became commonplace on both sides of the ethnic divide.26 Leaders on the two sides share at least some responsibility. The decision by Rohingya armed groups and some community leaders to align with the Myanmar military has set communities against each other in northern Rakhine. Arakan Army soldiers have also been accused of unleashing violence on Rohingya civilians. In April-May 2024, thousands of Rohingya houses were destroyed in rural and urban Buthidaung township; satellite images show that more than 30 villages in the area were almost totally razed.27 Rohingya residents say Arakan Army soldiers are responsible, which the group denies.28 In Maungdaw, meanwhile, the group was accused of attacking fleeing Rohingya civilians in early August, resulting in heavy casualties. Arakan Army leaders also regularly used inflammatory language when discussing the conflict; many Rohingya, encouraged by Rohingya armed groups, reciprocated by referring to the Arakan Army as “Mogh” terrorists, particularly online.29 Relations between the Rohingya and Rakhine communities have come under huge strain. Some 400,000 Rohingya are still thought to reside in Rakhine State, most of them in Arakan Army-controlled areas. Rohingya in Maungdaw and Buthidaung have 24 Bangladesh has allowed the UN to identify biometrically and provide limited support to Rohingya who have arrived over the past eighteen months. Around 119,000 Rohingya have been formally counted as of the end of May, but the tally is not yet completed, and UN officials estimate the total number of arrivals since the start of 2024 could be as high as 200,000. Crisis Group interviews, humanitarian agency officials, March and June 2025. 25 The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) says at least 9,195 Rohingya fled by boat in 2024, more than double the number in 2023; 91 per cent departed from Myanmar and the rest from Bangladesh, a change from the previous year when 76 per cent of departures were from Bangladesh. “More refugees risk dangerous sea journeys from Myanmar as crisis worsens”, UNHCR, 6 February 2025. 26 Crisis Group Report, Breaking Away: The Battle for Myanmar’s Rakhine State, op. cit. 27 Nathan Ruser, “They left a trail of ash: Decoding the Arakan Army’s arson attacks in the Rohingya heartland”, The Strategist, 13 June 2024. 28 Crisis Group interview, Arakan Army official, June 2024. 29 “Mogh” is a derogatory term for Rakhine people in the Bengali, Chittagonian and Rohingya languages. Since tensions escalated in 2024, it has become common for Rohingya to refer to the Arakan Army as “Mogh Baghi”. A term common to several South Asian languages, “Baghi” is usually translated as “rebels”, “insurgents” or even “terrorists” and carries negative connotations, including a lack of legitimacy and propensity for violence.