Table C.2: Results for probability of conflict: by treatment period
Pre
CoverageFB
Coverage
Observations
Data
Mean(Y)
District dummies
Controls
Treat
Post
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
0.074
(0.083)
0.168∗
(0.090)
−0.067
(0.059)
0.051
(0.062)
−0.134∗
(0.079)
0.185∗∗
(0.075)
−0.028
(0.053)
0.024
(0.058)
−0.102
(0.118)
0.305∗∗∗
(0.103)
−0.164∗∗
(0.076)
0.119∗
(0.070)
330
GDELT
0.761
X
X
330
ACLED
0.245
X
X
330
GDELT
0.648
X
X
330
ACLED
0.167
X
X
330
GDELT
0.624
X
X
330
ACLED
0.258
X
X
∗
p<0.1; ∗∗ p<0.05; ∗∗∗ p<0.01. Robust standard errors clustered at district level are reported in parentheses. The dependent variable in columns (1)–(2) is an indicator for conflict in a township between
January 1, 2014 and May 31, 2016; in columns (3)–(4) between June 1, 2016 and August 31, 2017;
and in columns (5)–(6) between September 1, 2017 and March 31, 2019. Population controls: log
population, log population density, dummy for below median urban rate, age (15–64 y.o.), population
with no ID, population with electricity, mobile phone, landline phone, and internet at home. Spatial
controls: 2nd order polynomials of distance to major town, distance to major road, distance to railway,
distance to MPT transmitter, distance to other transmitter, mean elevation, slope and aspect of the
slope, variance of elevation and slope. The predictors are standardized.
Table C.3: Cross-sectional results for conflict in Rakhine State: by conflict type
CoverageFB
Coverage
Observations
Mean(Y)
District dummies
Controls
Coerce
(1)
Assault
(2)
Fight
(3)
Mass violence
(4)
0.012
(0.013)
−0.018
(0.011)
0.001
(0.012)
−0.013
(0.008)
0.026∗
(0.015)
−0.017
(0.014)
−0.005
(0.006)
−0.008
(0.007)
1059
0.021
X
X
1059
0.016
X
X
1059
0.029
X
X
1059
0.007
X
X
∗
p<0.1; ∗∗ p<0.05; ∗∗∗ p<0.01. Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses. The dependent variable is an indicator for different conflict types. Conflict
measures are based on data from GDELT. Population controls: log population, log population density, dummy for below median urban rate, age (15–64
y.o.), population with no ID, population with electricity, mobile phone, landline phone, and internet at home. Spatial controls: 2nd order polynomials of
distance to major town, distance to major road, distance to railway, distance
to MPT transmitter, distance to other company’s transmitter, mean elevation,
slope and aspect of the slope, variance of elevation and slope. The predictors
are standardized.
35