Notes to Table
Sources of the indicators are as follows:
■ Conflict indicators: The base data used was from the
Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research
(Conflict Barometer 2018, Heidelberg, HIIK, 2019),
Minority Rights Group International, and the Center
for Systemic Peace (‘Major Episodes of Political
Violence 1946-2016’ (Center for Systemic Peace, 2017).
Self-determination/autonomy conflicts in 2016 were
ranked on a scale of 0-5 as follows: 5=ongoing armed
conflict; 4=contained armed conflict; 3=settled armed
conflict; 2=militant politics; 1=conventional politics.
Major armed conflicts were classified as 2=ongoing in
late 2018; 1=emerging from conflict since 2014 or
ongoing conflict with deaths under 1,000.
■ Prior genocide or politicide: Harff, US Political
Instability Task Force (formerly State Failure Task
Force). 1=one or more episodes since 1945, updated
using MRG data.
■ Indicators of Flight and Group Division: Data for the
flight of refugees and IDPs comes from UN High
Commissioner for Refugees, total population of
concern by country of origin, Mid-Year Trends 2018, as
a proportion of total country population (population
figures from UN DESA, 2017 revision). Group division
indicators are from the Fragile States Index, Fund for
Peace and the Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace, 2018.
14
■ Democracy/Governance Indicators: Annual Governance
Indicators, World Bank, 2017.
■ OECD country risk classification: Organisation for
Economic Cooperation and Development, ‘Country
Risk Classifications of the Participants to the
Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits’,
January 2019.
Data for Kosovo include some indicators relating to Serbia.
Data for the State of Palestine include some indicators
relating to both Israel/Palestine; data relating to Palestinian
refugees include those under the UNHCR mandate only.
Indicators were rebased as necessary to give an approximate
equal weighting to the five categories above, with the
exception of the prior geno-/politicide indicator. As a
dichotomous variable this received a lesser weighting to
avoid too great a distortion to the final ranking. Resulting
values were then summed.
The full formula is:
(A/2) + (Bx1.25) + (Cx2) + (Dx10) + (E+F)/6
+ (G+H+I)/-1 + ( Jx0.625)
Peoples under Threat 2019